Well may be not, and the demographic trends that will play out over the next 5-10 years will make it much worse.
Much has been written about the United Nations’ statement that they believe that the seven billionth person was born on 31st Oct. A good deal of it focusing on the implications of population growth on agriculture, society and economy. There is plenty of doom and gloom about the next 30-50 years. For the HR teams we work with, that is a lifetime away. Just getting through the next month’s Eurozone crisis is looking far enough ahead for many.
The implications of this seven billion figure on the next 5-10 years amongst the most skilled in the workforce is the real story for HR and business leaders. In developed economies (notably with the exception of the US) there is no growth, and in fact a decline, in the number of people replacing the most economically productive and skilled group in their societies, the baby boomers. As they continue to move to retirement in the next 5-10 years, the smaller groups of Gen. X and Y replacing them are not big enough to maintain, or increase, the total number of people with the greatest experience and productive capacity in the workforce. The US Census Bureau (see here for the data) and the team at Stratfor (see here, a great resource for geopolitical analysis) have done the detailed work on this.
We work with a good number of businesses that need to build complex capabilities in these Gen. X and Y workforces to survive, and replace the baby boomers in their key specialist and management roles. For example, it takes 5-10 years to create the necessary skills and experience in areas like; high end engineering, software and technology design, and professional services like law. To fill the pipeline these organisations are focusing on how to engage these groups, particularly the Gen. Y group with its seemingly very different attitudes to careers and technology. The issue being underplayed is the volume of people to develop here, not just whether we can engage them.
There will just be fewer of these people around. Think you can just look to the developing world to fill the gap (assuming you are able to recruit there), with the exception of India think again. The analysis referenced previously says that even China is actually only 10 years behind in having declining numbers of productive workers. The margin for error in talent management just got even smaller.
So unless you going to refocus your recruitment strategy and marketing to focus on India or the US (and compete with everyone else doing the same) it is time to drive every last inefficiency out of your talent management infrastructure.
We all know where it sits. The graduate programme that loses the majority of its members as they come to the end and leave the company because their next step is not managed activity. The succession planning programme that is silo’ed in business units because senior managers just do not want to “lose their good people”. The expat programme that fails to proactively manage the repatriation of those who have gained great experience, or align the reward structure to even make it viable to return.
It is time to look at how your talent initiatives join up, and track what we call the “red threads” through the business and across your HR teams. Does the whole system maximise its impact. Are your metrics telling you that it really is working. Don’t let the headline number catch your business out.
I’m more of a football widow than a football fan, (in fact am writing this while steadfastly ignoring another episode of Match of the Day) and I certainly don’t claim to be knowledgeable about the ‘beautiful game’. That said, recent headlines have got me interested in the role of the manager at Europe’s top clubs. [...]
Winemaking is undergoing an evolution. Increasingly, growers are using a more natural holistic method to grow vines. There is much in the philosophy surrounding the method which speaks to how we grow leaders for the future.
To celebrate the second International Star Wars day in Toronto starwarsdayto.com and because it was more fun than working, here is the Orion guide to the five things I learned about talent management from watching Star Wars.
There are now 7 billion of us on the planet, the war for talent is over…
Much has been written about the United Nations’ statement that they believe that the seven billionth person was born on 31st Oct. A good deal of it focusing on the implications of population growth on agriculture, society and economy. There is plenty of doom and gloom about the next 30-50 years. For the HR teams we work with, that is a lifetime away. Just getting through the next month’s Eurozone crisis is looking far enough ahead for many.
The implications of this seven billion figure on the next 5-10 years amongst the most skilled in the workforce is the real story for HR and business leaders. In developed economies (notably with the exception of the US) there is no growth, and in fact a decline, in the number of people replacing the most economically productive and skilled group in their societies, the baby boomers. As they continue to move to retirement in the next 5-10 years, the smaller groups of Gen. X and Y replacing them are not big enough to maintain, or increase, the total number of people with the greatest experience and productive capacity in the workforce. The US Census Bureau (see here for the data) and the team at Stratfor (see here, a great resource for geopolitical analysis) have done the detailed work on this.
We work with a good number of businesses that need to build complex capabilities in these Gen. X and Y workforces to survive, and replace the baby boomers in their key specialist and management roles. For example, it takes 5-10 years to create the necessary skills and experience in areas like; high end engineering, software and technology design, and professional services like law. To fill the pipeline these organisations are focusing on how to engage these groups, particularly the Gen. Y group with its seemingly very different attitudes to careers and technology. The issue being underplayed is the volume of people to develop here, not just whether we can engage them.
There will just be fewer of these people around. Think you can just look to the developing world to fill the gap (assuming you are able to recruit there), with the exception of India think again. The analysis referenced previously says that even China is actually only 10 years behind in having declining numbers of productive workers. The margin for error in talent management just got even smaller.
So unless you going to refocus your recruitment strategy and marketing to focus on India or the US (and compete with everyone else doing the same) it is time to drive every last inefficiency out of your talent management infrastructure.
We all know where it sits. The graduate programme that loses the majority of its members as they come to the end and leave the company because their next step is not managed activity. The succession planning programme that is silo’ed in business units because senior managers just do not want to “lose their good people”. The expat programme that fails to proactively manage the repatriation of those who have gained great experience, or align the reward structure to even make it viable to return.
It is time to look at how your talent initiatives join up, and track what we call the “red threads” through the business and across your HR teams. Does the whole system maximise its impact. Are your metrics telling you that it really is working. Don’t let the headline number catch your business out.